Tommy, I’m out of town and don’t have all my books and I hate looking up stuff on the app on my phone. The interpretations make a lot of the rules a little more understandable and I am also going by what is discussed in workshops and on the course with officials at events. And you almost have to see the course as to where penalty areas are and consider what is around penalty areas, trees, rough etc and if the ball could possibly be anywhere other than penalty’s area you can hit a provisional ball. If you see it “splash” that kinda eliminates that(although, I have seen a splash nd the ball had actually bounced onto land outside penalty area). This is kinda like “virtually certain “, it is some wiggle room. The rules are not as harsh as they use to be and give the benefit in most cases to the players.