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You have to look at your differential for the round. This is based on a formulation that includes your c score versus par, slope of course. etc. the formula is on the USGA website under handicaps. It is difficult to explain and I am no expert on it. Somewhere, there is a probably chart or calculator as to how many times in 20 rounds you will actually shoot your handicap. The last time I was told, you should only break your handicap 3 times in 20 rounds and and not by a substantial amount. Thus the Probability off doing that multiple times in 4 rounds is what gets everyone. Ask who run tournaments (net) use all this when running events. I know the WA does in the way they try to keep it fair to those of is that post all P.O. scores. JMO