Harry the hack
Your description of an exception round penalty is wrong. It penalizes past rounds by a 1 or 2 differential deduction based on the differential of the exceptional round. As you continue to
Post, those rounds asses the differential penalty fall off. That’s a USGA-R&A handicap calculation. The Pope of Slope just posts the odds (which the world am appears to follow). The lower your handicap, the higher the odds are of having a differential 7 or more points lower than your handicap, which is exactly what the table shows.